Daily Market Forecast, December 27, 2017 – EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, USD/JPY, GBP/USD-SapForex24

EUR/USD: Choppy Trading Dominating

The Euro traded sideways on Tuesday as volumes in forex proved to be very light. The European currency is near the 1.1850 level against the U.S Dollar. As more investors return to the market the Euro may look attractive at its current values. However, traders should expect choppy trading to dominate near term.

Gold: Buying Momentum Builds

Gold has continued to see buying momentum and its value as of this morning is close to 1281.00 U.S Dollars an ounce. Trading volumes remain light because many large investors are still on the sideline as they celebrate the holiday season. However, the precious metal has been able to break short-term resistance and traders may be tempted to remain buyers.

Crude Oil: Important Resistance Surpassed

Crude Oil broke above 60.00 U.S Dollars a barrel on Tuesday as speculators continue to be bullish. U.S Crude Oil has been able to surpass important resistance. Traders may be tempted to look for upside value but should be ready for some pushback in the coming days.

GBP/USD: Consolidation May Lose Grip

The Pound starts Wednesday essentially with the same value it had yesterday against the U.S Dollar. The 1.3370 juncture has been strong. As U.K traders return from their Boxing Day holiday the Pound could break out of its consolidation, but the currency will likely continue to range trade.

USD/JPY: Cautious Trading for the Yen

The Yen has seen tight trading like the other major currencies. The Japanese currency is near 113.25 against the U.S Dollar. Trading volumes remain thin on the Nikkei Index and cautious. The Yen remains within its weaker range against the U.S Dollar, but some traders may be tempted to look for a reversal to develop and for the Yen to strengthen.

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Daily Market Forecast, December 26, 2017 – EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, USD/JPY, GBP/USD-SapForex24

USD/JPY: Quiet Conditions for Yen

Forex will remain very quiet today for all the major currencies. This includes the Yen as many global financial institutions remain in holiday mode. The Japanese currency is near 113.30 against the U.S Dollar. Traders should be ready for sudden bursts of activity amidst the very tranquil conditions. Volumes will pick up tomorrow.

Gold: Precious Metal Propelled Higher

Gold is near 1279.00 U.S Dollars an ounce as of this morning. The commodity was propelled higher via a large buy in the market earlier today. The precious metal is near important resistance, but with holiday trading in effect, Gold may prove to be a difficult short term to predict.

EUR/USD: Low Trading Volumes Today for Euro

The Euro will experience extremely low trading volume as most of the European continent remains on official holiday. The Euro is around 1.1880 against the U.S Dollar. Range traders might enjoy an opportunity to look for short-term spikes, but risk management would be wise today.

GBP/USD: Boxing Day Holiday in U.K

The Pound is around 1.3370 against the U.S Dollar. U.K investors are celebrating Boxing Day and trading will be nearly non-existent today. However, traders with positions on will want to monitor the range of the Pound and be ready for potential moves when investing picks up tomorrow.

Crude Oil: Solid Trend Upwards for U.S Crude Oil

U.S Crude Oil could be the commodity to watch today as some traders in America make their way back to the marketplace. The commodity is above 58.50 U.S Dollars a barrel and has provided a solid trend upwards the past week.

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Gold Prices Remain Supported on U.S. Dollar Softness-SapForex24

Comex gold futures were up $2.70 or about 0.21% at $1,266.80 a troy ounce by 03:00 a.m. ET (07:00 GMT), just off the previous session's two-week high of $1,268.40.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 93.09.

Gold is sensitive to moves in the dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency.

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Gold Prices Hover Near 1-Week Highs on Weaker Dollar-SapForex24

Gold prices were hovering near one-week highs on Friday, as fresh concerns over U.S. tax reform plans weighed on the dollar and as markets were still digesting the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement.

Comex gold futures were up $1.80 or about 0.15% at $1,258.90 a troy ounce by 03:00 a.m. ET (07:00 GMT), just off a one-week high of $1,261.50 hit on Thursday.

the central bank did not change its projections for 2018, which include three more interest rate hikes in both 2018 and 2019, disappointing expectations for four rate hikes next year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.16% at 93.50.

Gold is sensitive to moves in both U.S. rates and the dollar. A weaker dollar makes Gold less expensive for holders of foreign currency, while a rise in U.S. rates lifts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures added 0.16% to $15.96 a troy ounce.

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Forex - Dollar Steadies after Post-Fed Slide-SapForex24

The dollar stabilized against a basket of the other major currencies on Thursday, having slid after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected, but left its interest rate projections for 2018 unchanged.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 93.47.

The dollar was also on the back foot after U.S. core consumer price data released on Wednesday showed slowing inflation.

But hopes for progress on U.S. tax reform, including tax cuts, continued to lend support to the dollar.
The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.19% to 112.76 after tumbling 0.9% on Wednesday.

The euro was little changed against the dollar, with EUR/USD at 1.1830, having advanced 0.7% the previous day.

In the euro zone, data on Thursday showed that the German economy grew at the fastest rate in more than six-and-a-half years in December, while a similar survey showed that the French economy also ended 2018 on a strong note.

Sterling edged higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.13% to 1.3432.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank were to make their final monetary policy announcement of the year later in the day and are expected to hold rates steady.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left interest rates unchanged at a record low of minus 0.75% after its meeting on Thursday, and pledged to “remain active” in the foreign exchange market to prevent the Swiss franc becoming too strong.

The Swissy remained slightly lower against the euro and the dollar following the announcement, with USD/CHF at 0.9861 and EUR/CHF at 1.1670.

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Forex - Dollar Dips Before U.S. Tax Bill, Sterling Eyes Rate Decision-SapForex24

The dollar edged lower on Thursday as investors awaited the release of a U.S. tax bill after a one-day delay, while the pound pushed higher ahead of a Bank of England policy decision later in the day.

House Republicans were expected to release a tax bill later Thursday amid ongoing internal disagreements over how proposed tax cuts will be paid for.

Lawmakers have made plans for measures seeking up to $6 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years.
The dollar has been boosted in recent months by hopes that tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.

The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday in a widely expected decision, but expectations for a December rate hike sharpened as officials noted “solid” economic growth and a tightening labor market.

Earlier Wednesday a strong ADP nonfarm payrolls report underlined the case for further monetary tightening.

Meanwhile, investors were awaiting an official White House announcement on President Donald Trump’s pick for the next Fed chairman. Recent reports have indicated that Trump is likely to appoint Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is viewed as more dovish than other candidates.

The dollar was a touch lower against the yen, with USD/JPY last at 114.11, holding above an overnight low of 113.61.

The euro pushed higher, with EUR/USD rising 0.15% to 1.1635.

Sterling gained ground, with GBP/USD up 0.18% at 1.3269 ahead of a BoE meeting later in the day where the bank was widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2007.

Investors will be focusing on the degree of consensus among policymakers as they try to gauge the likelihood of further rate hikes.

The pound was little changed against the euro, with EUR/GBP at 0.8770.

Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced, with AUD/USD adding 0.42% to 0.7709 and NZD/USD rising 0.38% to 0.6911.

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Oil Prices Slip Further Following Surprise U.S. Crude Build-SapForex24

Crude oil prices edged lower on Thursday, after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed domestic crude stockpiles increased for the first time in five weeks.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dipped 20 cents, or around 0.4%, at $51.98 a barrel by 3:15AM ET (0715GMT), after losing 29 cents, or 0.6%, a day earlier.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., shed 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.34 a barrel.

Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday, pressured by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and as oil output and exports from the United States rose last week.

Crude oil inventories rose by 856,000 barrels, according to the EIA, marking the first increase in five weeks. That compared with analysts' expectations for a decline of 2.6 million barrels.

The report also showed that domestic production rebounded by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 9.5 million and net imports rose by just over 500,000 bpd, after the falloff due to Hurricane Nate the week before.

Prices remained supported by comments from Saudi Arabia's energy minister on Tuesday reiterating its determination to end a global supply glut and as geopolitical turmoil threatened global inventories.
In other energy trading Thursday, gasoline futures held steady at $1.731 a gallon, while heating oil slipped 0.4 cents to $1.814 a gallon.

Gasoline inventories fell by 5.5 million barrels last week, much more than expectations for a decline of 17,000 barrels. For distillate inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a decline of 5.2 million barrels.

Natural gas futures rose 0.6 cents to $2.925 per million British thermal units, as traders looked ahead to weekly storage data due later in the global day.

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Forex - Sterling Hits Day’s Highs after UK GDP Data-SapForex24

The pound rose to the day’s highs on Wednesday after data showing that UK economic growth picked up the third quarter was seen as raising the chances of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England next month.

GBP/USD was up 0.31% at 1.3176 by 04.50 AM ET (08:50 AM GMT) from around 1.3122 ahead of the report.

The Office for National Statistics reported that gross domestic product grew by 0.4% in the three months to September, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economists had expected grow to remain steady at 0.3%.

The UK economy expanded 1.5% on a year-over-year basis, matching the previous quarter’s growth and above forecasts for an expansion of 1.4%.

Service sector output provided the bulk of the growth the ONS said, expanding by 0.4% during the quarter.

The manufacturing sector also returned to growth, with output rising by 1.0%, but construction activity contracted by 0.7% on the quarter.

The pick-up in growth was likely to cement expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates next month, but growth of 0.4% is still well below the UK’s long term growth rate.

The euro fell to the day's lows against the pound following the report, with EUR/GBP down 0.38% to 0.8922 from around 0.8966 earlier.

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Gold Prices Hit 2-Week Low as Dollar Gains -SapForex24

Gold prices hit a more-than-two week low on Monday as dollar strength continued to put pressure on the precious metal.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery lost $2.94, or about 0.2%, to $1.277.56 .

That was just off an intraday low of $1,275.58 touched earlier in the session, its lowest level since October 6.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.19% at 93.75.

Gold is sensitive to a stronger dollar as the gains in the greenback made the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currency.

The dollar has found support as hopes for U.S. tax reforms were boosted last week after the Senate approved a budget measure that will allow Republicans to pursue tax cuts without Democratic support.

The greenback ended last week up 0.69%, its fifth weekly increase in six weeks. Investors expect a fiscal boost to push up inflation, which in turn to add pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver dropped 0.50% at $16.993 a troy ounce.

Platinum fell 0.62% at $921.05 a troy ounce, while palladium lost 0.44% to $965.60 a troy ounce as both metals hit one-week lows overnight.

To the upside, copper rose 0.24% to $3.173 a pound after Chinese authorities reaffirmed that the country's economy was on track to achieve the official growth target even as its housing market slows.

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Oil prices lower after strong third quarter as Sept. OPEC output rises-SapForex24

Oil prices fell on Monday, pausing for breath after posting gains of as much as 20 percent in the third quarter, after a survey pointed to a slight increase in OPEC production in September.

U.S. crude was down 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $51.53 a barrel at 0637 GMT. The U.S. benchmark on Friday posted its strongest quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2016 and the longest streak of weekly gains since January.

Global benchmark Brent crude for December delivery was down 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $56.56 a barrel. On Friday, Brent for November delivery closed 13 cents higher at $57.54 a barrel, notching up a third-quarter gain of around 20 percent, the biggest gain in five quarters. It was the biggest third-quarter increase since 2004.

The contract reached its highest in more than two years early last week, and posted its fifth consecutive weekly gain. It was Brent's longest weekly bull run since June 2016.

The price gains have been supported by anticipated demand from U.S. refiners resuming operations after shutdowns due to Hurricane Harvey, but a quick resumption of shale production could put a dampener on prices.

"U.S. production should be soft over August and September, due to Hurricane-related shut-ins but should rebound" in the fourth quarter, Barclays (LON:BARC) Research said in a note.

Oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also rose last month, gaining by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd), a Reuters survey found.

Iraqi exports increased and production edged higher in Libya, one of the OPEC producers exempt from a deal to curb output and support prices.

Middle Eastern oil producers are concerned the recent price rise will only stir U.S. shale producers into more drilling and push prices lower again.

U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for the first week in seven after a 14-month drilling recovery stalled in August, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.

Drillers added six oil rigs in the week to Sept. 29, bringing the total count up to 750.

Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long positions in U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Sept. 26, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported on Friday.

Managed money net long positions rose by 43,496 contracts to 251,788 contracts, the most since the week of Aug. 22, the CFTC said.

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