Forex - Dollar struggles near 10-month lows, sterling slips- SapForex24

The dollar was wallowing near 10-month lows on Monday after data showing that China’s economy gained momentum in the second quarter amid lingering doubts over the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates again this year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ticked up 0.11% to 94.99 by 06.13 a.m. ET (10.13 a.m. GMT).

The index touched a 10-month low of 94.86 overnight after falling 0.69% on Friday.

China reported overnight that second-quarter gross domestic product expanded by an annualized 6.9%, driven by strong retail sales, industrial output and exports.

The data brightened the outlook for global growth because China is the world’s second largest economy.

USD/JPY was last at 112.43 after falling to a two-week low of 112.31 overnight.

The dollar weakened broadly on Friday after weak U.S. inflation and retail sales data added to doubts over the Fed’s plans for a third rate hike this year.

The Fed hiked rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year but the sluggish inflation outlook has raised questions over whether officials will be able to stick to their planned tightening path.

The euro was a touch lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD slipping 0.1% to 1.1456, still within striking distance of the 14-month high of 1.1488 set last Wednesday.

Sterling moved lower, with GBP/USD down 0.26% to 1.3066 amid concerns over heightened political uncertainties and the potential impact of Brexit as full talks got underway in Brussels.

The pound rallied 1.2% against the dollar on Friday, its largest one-day percentage gain in three months to a high of 1.3093.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly lower, with AUD/USD pulling back to 0.7822 from the 15-month high of 0.7832 set overnight as the upbeat Chinese data bolstered inflows into higher yielding assets.

NZD/USD slid 0.2% to 0.7331 after rising as high as 0.7361 earlier.

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Gold holds near 5-week low amid hawkish Fed outlook -SapForex24

Gold prices stayed near the lowest level in around five weeks in European trade on Tuesday, as hawkish remarks made by an influential Federal Reserve official reinforced expectations for the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

Comex gold futures were at $1,248.89 a troy ounce by 4:35AM ET (0835GMT), up $2.20, or around 0.2%. Prices fell to $1,244.10 in overnight trade, a level not seen since May 17. Gold prices lost about $10.00, or 0.8%, on Monday.

Also on the Comex, silver futures were up 7.8 cents, or roughly 0.5%, to $16.58 a troy ounce, after hitting its lowest since May 18 at $16.44.

New York Fed Chief William Dudley gave an upbeat assessment of the economy on Monday and warned against the central bank taking a pause in the tightening cycle.

In a business roundtable held in Plattsburg, New York, Dudley said U.S. inflation is a bit low but should rise alongside wages as the labor market continues to improve, allowing the Fed to continue gradually tightening U.S. monetary policy.

The remarks echoed similar comments made by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in last week’s press conference after the central bank hiked rates for the second time this year.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans however later said the Fed should move slowly to raise rates and trim its portfolio due to soft inflation.

The U.S. central bank last week raised interest rates as widely expected and maintained plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. The Fed also provided greater detail about how it plans to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

Despite the Fed's relatively hawkish message, market players remained doubtful over the central bank's ability to raise rates as much as it would like before the end of the year due to a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data.

Futures traders are pricing in around a 20% chance of a hike at the Fed's September meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a December increase was seen at about 40%.

Market players will focus on a pair of Federal Reserve speakers Tuesday, as they look for more clues on future monetary policy moves.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaks at 8:15AM ET at the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series meeting in Amsterdam. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will also speak in San Francisco at the Commonwealth Club of California.

Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer did not address the outlook for U.S. monetary policy or the economy when he spoke in Amsterdam earlier in the day.

Among other precious metals, platinum was little changed at $928.05, while palladium tacked on 0.5% to $859.80 an ounce.

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Forex - Dollar index little changed, Fed meeting minutes ahead-SapForex24

The dollar was little changed against other major currencies on Wednesday, as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due later in the day.

EUR/USD held steady at 1.1186, off Tuesday’s six-month high of 1.1268.

The greenback regained some ground as investors turned their attention to the upcoming minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy meeting, with hopes of further indications on the pace of future rate hikes.

The U.S. dollar had broadly weakened recently following a string of revelations surrounding the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s U.S. presidential election and reports that Donald Trump attempted to interfere with the judicial process.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD rose 0.27% to 1.2994.

Investors were also still digesting the Manchester terrorist attack that killed 22 people on Monday evening.

USD/JPY eased up 0.08% to 111.86, while USD/CHF was little changed at 0.9758.

The Australian dollar was weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.12% at 0.7471, while NZD/USD added 0.09% to 0.7019.

Earlier Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said construction work done fell 0.7% in the first quarter, disappointing expectations for a 0.2% slip.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD was steady at 1.3505.

Also Wednesday, Moody’s downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time in almost three decades.

Moody’s warned that China’s financial strength is likely to deteriorate in the coming years, as its economy slows and its national debt keeps rising.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 97.22.

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International Market Update by SapForex24: 25-April-2017

SAPFOREX24 MORNING UPDATE

Gold: 1273.66

Silver: 17.902

Copper: 2.577

Crude Oil: 49.37

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Oil recovers lost ground, but market remains under pressure-SapForex24

Oil prices recovered lost ground on Monday following big losses last week, driven by expectations that OPEC will extend a pledge to cut output to cover all of 2017, although a relentless rise in U.S. drilling capped gains.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil futures (CLc1) added 32 cents, or 0.64 percent, by 0649 GMT(2:49 a.m. ET), but were still just below the $50 mark pierced on Friday at $49.84 a barrel.
Brent crude futures (LCOc1) rose 35 cents, or 0.67 percent, to $52.31 per barrel.

Oil prices fell steeply last week on the back of stubbornly high crude supplies, despite a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 to support the market.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 14th week in a row, to 688 rigs, extending an 11-month recovery that is expected to boost U.S. shale production in May by the biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

U.S. crude production is at 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd) , up almost 10 percent since mid-2016 and approaching that of OPEC's top exporter Saudi Arabia.

"WTI oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel level, amid concerns that the lack of inventory drawdown since the OPEC production cuts is a sign that the cuts are not enough to rebalance supply and demand and put a floor under prices," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities in a note on Monday.

Both the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are down more than 7.5 percent since the end of last year.
Keen to halt a further decline in prices, a panel made up by OPEC and other allied producers has recommended an extension of output cuts by another six months from June, a source said.

This, and an expected fall in Iranian production lent markets some support on Monday, traders said.
Iran's crude oil exports are set to hit a 14-month low in May, suggesting the country is struggling to raise exports after clearing out stocks stored on tankers.

Iranian oil exports, especially to its core markets in Asia, had soared since the ending of most sanctions against it in January 2016.

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Forex - Dollar holds onto gains vs. other majors-SapForex24

The dollar held onto gains against other major currencies on Wednesday, recovering from the previous session’s downbeat U.S. data, although U.S. political uncertainty was expected to limit the greenback’s rise.

EUR/USD slipped 0.19% to 1.0711, off a three-week high of 1.0737 hit overnight.

The greenback had weakened after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that housing starts fell in March, likely due to bad weather, while building permits rose.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production rose in line with economists’ forecasts in March, while manufacturing production unexpectedly fell.

Sentiment on the greenback also remained vulnerable as trade talks between the U.S. and Japan got underway this week, with markets awaiting indications of the direction U.S. trade policy could take under President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a protectionist platform.

Heightened tensions around North Korea, which has vowed to conduct more missile tests following Sunday's failed missile launch, also continued to weigh on the greenback.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Wednesday that Washington would work with its allies and China to put economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea.

Markets were also jittery ahead of the first round of the French presidential election, scheduled on Sunday April 23. The race tightened after a surge in polls for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who wants a referendum on the country’s European Union membership.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged down 0.20% to 1.2816 after hitting a six-month peak of 1.2904 on Tuesday, when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday called a snap election for June 8.

Analysts expect May to win a substantial majority in the elections, securing her position ahead of talks with the European Union about the terms for Brexit.

USD/JPY gained 0.43% to trade at 108.90, while USD/CHF eased up 0.11% to 0.9975.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.60% at 0.7515 and with NZD/USD declining 0.41% to 0.7013.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD rose 0.34% to trade at 1.3427.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.23% at 99.64, just off the previous session’s three-week low of 99.36.

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International Market Update by SapForex24: 19-April-2017

SF- International Market Update

Gold: 1286.00

Silver: 18.180

Copper: 2.547

Crude Oil: 52.40

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Oil rises to near one-month high on supply tightening- SapForex24

Oil climbed to a near one-month high on Wednesday on signs of a gradual tightening in global oil inventories and on concerns about a supply outage at a field in the United Kingdom's North Sea that feeds into an international benchmark price.

Brent Crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $54.52 per barrel at 0658 GMT, up 35 cents, or 0.65 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.65 percent, at $51.35 a barrel.

Both benchmarks on Wednesday hit their highest levels since March 8.

"The immediate reason for the move was an unplanned production outage in the North Sea," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta, referring to an unplanned production outage at the Buzzard oil field in the North Sea.

Buzzard produces about 180,000 barrels per day. It is the largest contributor to the Forties crude stream that is a key component of the physical Brent oil price that the Brent futures contract settles against.

Traders also said that prices gained amid slowly tightening market conditions, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leading an effort to cut output.
With most of OPEC's crude exported on tankers, tracking ship movements can be a good gauge of market conditions.

Shipped oil supplies have fallen by as much as 17 percent this year, according to oil analysis firm Vortexa.

"We have seen a significant reduction in global oil supply since January, with oil on water going from 978 million barrels on Jan. 1 to 812 million barrels on April 3," said Vortexa chief executive Fabio Kuhn.

"These changes are a signal that the rebalancing is happening faster than many in the market believe."
Trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that OPEC shipments to the rest of the world fell to 813.7 million barrels by the end of March from 796.6 million barrels in January.

But the tighter markets will only gradually lead to a reduction in bloated inventories as production especially the United States is rising.

U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels last week to 533.7 million, still near an all-time record, the American Petroleum Institute reported late on Tuesday.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will issue its inventory figures later on Wednesday.
At the heart of the bloated U.S. market is rising production.

The U.S. rig count rose for an 11th straight week last week to 662, making the first quarter of 2017 the strongest quarter for rig additions since mid-2011, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.

Following a slump in 2015 and 2016, U.S. oil production has risen 8.5 percent since mid-2016 to 9.15 million bpd, the same level output stood at in 2014, when the market downturn began.
"Price upside will... be capped by the recovering U.S. shale sector," BMI Research said.

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Oil slips towards $50 on doubts over output-cut extension - SapForex24

Oil fell further towards $50 a barrel on Monday, pressured by uncertainty over whether an OPEC-led production cut will be extended beyond June in an effort to counter a glut of crude.

A committee of ministers from OPEC and outside producers agreed on Sunday to look at prolonging the deal, stopping short of an earlier draft statement that said the committee recommended keeping the measure in place.

International benchmark Brent crude was down 34 cents at $50.46 by 0822 GMT, after falling as low as $50.26. U.S. crude was down 44 cents at $47.53.

"We would see the relative lack of reaction in the price perhaps as a reflection of some disappointment that nothing more concrete was forthcoming," analysts at JBC Energy said in a report, referring to the conclusion of Sunday's talks.

A number of ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers met in Kuwait to review the progress of their supply cut, which initially runs until the end of June.

OPEC and 11 other producers including Russia agreed in December to reduce their combined output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year, to support prices and curb oversupply.

While many in OPEC have called for prolonging the curbs, Russia has been less definitive. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday it was too early to say whether there would be an extension.

There is "increasing scepticism" in the market as to whether a rollover of the cuts can be agreed, JBC added.

Oil also came under pressure from further evidence that higher prices as a result of the OPEC-led supply cut are helping boost supplies in the United States.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 10th week in a row, data from energy services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday, as energy companies boost spending on new production.

Because of higher U.S. output and the cuts by OPEC, the discount of U.S. crude to Brent has grown to around $2.90 per barrel, heading for its widest close since late 2015.

Despite ample inventories and rising U.S. output, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said the market was rebalancing and it may not be necessary to keep output curbed unless supply-and-demand fundamentals worsen.

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