International Market Update by SapForex24: 25-April-2017

SAPFOREX24 MORNING UPDATE

Gold: 1273.66

Silver: 17.902

Copper: 2.577

Crude Oil: 49.37

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Oil recovers lost ground, but market remains under pressure-SapForex24

Oil prices recovered lost ground on Monday following big losses last week, driven by expectations that OPEC will extend a pledge to cut output to cover all of 2017, although a relentless rise in U.S. drilling capped gains.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil futures (CLc1) added 32 cents, or 0.64 percent, by 0649 GMT(2:49 a.m. ET), but were still just below the $50 mark pierced on Friday at $49.84 a barrel.
Brent crude futures (LCOc1) rose 35 cents, or 0.67 percent, to $52.31 per barrel.

Oil prices fell steeply last week on the back of stubbornly high crude supplies, despite a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 to support the market.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 14th week in a row, to 688 rigs, extending an 11-month recovery that is expected to boost U.S. shale production in May by the biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

U.S. crude production is at 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd) , up almost 10 percent since mid-2016 and approaching that of OPEC's top exporter Saudi Arabia.

"WTI oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel level, amid concerns that the lack of inventory drawdown since the OPEC production cuts is a sign that the cuts are not enough to rebalance supply and demand and put a floor under prices," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities in a note on Monday.

Both the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are down more than 7.5 percent since the end of last year.
Keen to halt a further decline in prices, a panel made up by OPEC and other allied producers has recommended an extension of output cuts by another six months from June, a source said.

This, and an expected fall in Iranian production lent markets some support on Monday, traders said.
Iran's crude oil exports are set to hit a 14-month low in May, suggesting the country is struggling to raise exports after clearing out stocks stored on tankers.

Iranian oil exports, especially to its core markets in Asia, had soared since the ending of most sanctions against it in January 2016.

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Forex - Dollar holds onto gains vs. other majors-SapForex24

The dollar held onto gains against other major currencies on Wednesday, recovering from the previous session’s downbeat U.S. data, although U.S. political uncertainty was expected to limit the greenback’s rise.

EUR/USD slipped 0.19% to 1.0711, off a three-week high of 1.0737 hit overnight.

The greenback had weakened after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that housing starts fell in March, likely due to bad weather, while building permits rose.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production rose in line with economists’ forecasts in March, while manufacturing production unexpectedly fell.

Sentiment on the greenback also remained vulnerable as trade talks between the U.S. and Japan got underway this week, with markets awaiting indications of the direction U.S. trade policy could take under President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a protectionist platform.

Heightened tensions around North Korea, which has vowed to conduct more missile tests following Sunday's failed missile launch, also continued to weigh on the greenback.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Wednesday that Washington would work with its allies and China to put economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea.

Markets were also jittery ahead of the first round of the French presidential election, scheduled on Sunday April 23. The race tightened after a surge in polls for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who wants a referendum on the country’s European Union membership.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged down 0.20% to 1.2816 after hitting a six-month peak of 1.2904 on Tuesday, when U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday called a snap election for June 8.

Analysts expect May to win a substantial majority in the elections, securing her position ahead of talks with the European Union about the terms for Brexit.

USD/JPY gained 0.43% to trade at 108.90, while USD/CHF eased up 0.11% to 0.9975.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.60% at 0.7515 and with NZD/USD declining 0.41% to 0.7013.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD rose 0.34% to trade at 1.3427.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.23% at 99.64, just off the previous session’s three-week low of 99.36.

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International Market Update by SapForex24: 19-April-2017

SF- International Market Update

Gold: 1286.00

Silver: 18.180

Copper: 2.547

Crude Oil: 52.40

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New Ways of Trading in Comex Market - SapForex24

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Oil rises to near one-month high on supply tightening- SapForex24

Oil climbed to a near one-month high on Wednesday on signs of a gradual tightening in global oil inventories and on concerns about a supply outage at a field in the United Kingdom's North Sea that feeds into an international benchmark price.

Brent Crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $54.52 per barrel at 0658 GMT, up 35 cents, or 0.65 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.65 percent, at $51.35 a barrel.

Both benchmarks on Wednesday hit their highest levels since March 8.

"The immediate reason for the move was an unplanned production outage in the North Sea," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta, referring to an unplanned production outage at the Buzzard oil field in the North Sea.

Buzzard produces about 180,000 barrels per day. It is the largest contributor to the Forties crude stream that is a key component of the physical Brent oil price that the Brent futures contract settles against.

Traders also said that prices gained amid slowly tightening market conditions, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leading an effort to cut output.
With most of OPEC's crude exported on tankers, tracking ship movements can be a good gauge of market conditions.

Shipped oil supplies have fallen by as much as 17 percent this year, according to oil analysis firm Vortexa.

"We have seen a significant reduction in global oil supply since January, with oil on water going from 978 million barrels on Jan. 1 to 812 million barrels on April 3," said Vortexa chief executive Fabio Kuhn.

"These changes are a signal that the rebalancing is happening faster than many in the market believe."
Trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that OPEC shipments to the rest of the world fell to 813.7 million barrels by the end of March from 796.6 million barrels in January.

But the tighter markets will only gradually lead to a reduction in bloated inventories as production especially the United States is rising.

U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels last week to 533.7 million, still near an all-time record, the American Petroleum Institute reported late on Tuesday.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will issue its inventory figures later on Wednesday.
At the heart of the bloated U.S. market is rising production.

The U.S. rig count rose for an 11th straight week last week to 662, making the first quarter of 2017 the strongest quarter for rig additions since mid-2011, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.

Following a slump in 2015 and 2016, U.S. oil production has risen 8.5 percent since mid-2016 to 9.15 million bpd, the same level output stood at in 2014, when the market downturn began.
"Price upside will... be capped by the recovering U.S. shale sector," BMI Research said.

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Oil slips towards $50 on doubts over output-cut extension - SapForex24

Oil fell further towards $50 a barrel on Monday, pressured by uncertainty over whether an OPEC-led production cut will be extended beyond June in an effort to counter a glut of crude.

A committee of ministers from OPEC and outside producers agreed on Sunday to look at prolonging the deal, stopping short of an earlier draft statement that said the committee recommended keeping the measure in place.

International benchmark Brent crude was down 34 cents at $50.46 by 0822 GMT, after falling as low as $50.26. U.S. crude was down 44 cents at $47.53.

"We would see the relative lack of reaction in the price perhaps as a reflection of some disappointment that nothing more concrete was forthcoming," analysts at JBC Energy said in a report, referring to the conclusion of Sunday's talks.

A number of ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers met in Kuwait to review the progress of their supply cut, which initially runs until the end of June.

OPEC and 11 other producers including Russia agreed in December to reduce their combined output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year, to support prices and curb oversupply.

While many in OPEC have called for prolonging the curbs, Russia has been less definitive. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday it was too early to say whether there would be an extension.

There is "increasing scepticism" in the market as to whether a rollover of the cuts can be agreed, JBC added.

Oil also came under pressure from further evidence that higher prices as a result of the OPEC-led supply cut are helping boost supplies in the United States.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 10th week in a row, data from energy services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday, as energy companies boost spending on new production.

Because of higher U.S. output and the cuts by OPEC, the discount of U.S. crude to Brent has grown to around $2.90 per barrel, heading for its widest close since late 2015.

Despite ample inventories and rising U.S. output, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said the market was rebalancing and it may not be necessary to keep output curbed unless supply-and-demand fundamentals worsen.

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Oil prices rise on talk that OPEC could extend supply cut- SapForex24

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could be extended, while strong demand would also work to slowly erode a global fuel supply overhang.

Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $51.86 per barrel at 0401 GMT, up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $48.35 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with other producers including Russia, has pledged to cut its output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January and June in an effort to prop up prices and rein in a global supply glut that has dogged markets for almost three years.

Yet so far the cutback has not had the desired effect as compliance by involved exporters is patchy and as other producers, including the United States, have stepped up to fill the gap, resulting in crude prices falling more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year.

To halt the decline, OPEC members increasingly favor extending the pact beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added that this would require NON-OPEC members like Russia to also step up their efforts.

Traders also said that healthy oil demand would help rebalance markets and support prices.
"Global demand for 2017 is expected to remain healthy and surpass long-term average growth in demand of 1.2 million barrels per day by between 0.2 and 0.4 million barrels per day.

 As such, the combination of robust demand and weaker global supply leading to rebalanced markets will not be de-railed by U.S. shale oil," said Jeremy Baker, Senior Commodity Strategist, at Vontobel Asset Management.

Baker said this would "support the case for a shift from contango to backwardation in the crude markets during the second-half 2017."

Contango describes a market structure in which prices for future delivery of a product are higher than current ones, while backwardation is price curve in which spot prices are more expensive than future deliveries.

Traders said that U.S. crude storage data, due to be published later on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API), would likely be the next significant price driver.

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Forex markets stands for foreign exchange markets. In forex markets many currencies and their current market prices are listed. many currency pairs with their current market rates can be traded. The currencies of all the countries are index over the market exchange. Palce on the demand and supply the relative prices of the currency market pair changes. 

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Goldman says global crude stocks likely to keep falling- SapForex24

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) expects global crude oil inventories to keep falling due to production cuts and strong growth in demand, although stocks are likely to rise in the United States.

"We do not view the recent U.S. builds as derailing our forecast for a gradual draw in inventories, with in fact the rest of the world already showing signs of tightness," analysts at the bank said in a note dated Feb. 21.

"Given our unchanged 1.5 million barrels per day growth forecast for 2017, this higher base demand level should fully offset higher U.S. output."

The Wall Street bank reiterated its forecast for Brent and U.S. Crude prices to rise to $59 and $57.50 per barrel respectively in the second quarter, before dropping to $57 and $55 for the rest of 2017.

Oil prices held near multi-week highs on Wednesday, with the U.S. West Texas Intermediate April crude contract (CLc1) up 18 cents at $54.51 a barrel at 0228 GMT (5:28 a.m. ET), while Brent crude (LCOc1) was up 24 cents at $56.90.

Surging U.S. output has pushed crude and gasoline inventories to record highs, keeping a lid on prices after they climbed following an agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

"While the production cuts have so far reached a historically high level of compliance at 90 percent, the rebound in U.S. drilling activity has exceeded even our above consensus expectations," Goldman said.

However, the increase in U.S. drilling points to factors including further improvement in shale productivity and funding for the industry, rather than expectations of an increase in prices, the bank said.

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