Wednesday, 23 November 2016

Dollar at fresh 14-year highs vs. rivals after mixed U.S. data

The dollar was hovering at a fresh 14-year peak against the other majors currencies on Wednesday, after the release of mixed U.S. data failed to dampen optimism over the strength of the economy.
The Universtity of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 93.8 in November from 91.6 the previous month, beating expectations for an unchanged reading.

In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said durable goods orders climbed 4.8% last month, compared to expectations for a gain of 1.5%.
Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, rose 1% last month, compared to a forecast increase of 0.2%.

On a less positive note, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims in the week ending November 19 increased by 18,000 to251,000 from the previous week’s total of 233,000 (initially 235,000). Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 15,000 to 250,000 last week.
Another report showed that U.S. new home sales fell by 1.9% to 563,000 units last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase.

The greenback has remained supported amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut taxes will spur economic growth and inflation.
Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected.

The U.S. dollar has also been boosted by bets that the U.S. central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday reiterated that a rate hike “could well become appropriate relatively soon.”

EUR/USD dropped 0.81% to a fresh 11-month low of 1.0537.

Research group Markit earlier reported that its euro zone composite purchasing managers’ index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, increased to 54.1 November from the prior month’s reading of 53.3 and above forecasts for no change.
The German manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.9 this month from 55.0, while the services PMI climbed to a six-month high of 55.0 from 54.2.

Markit also said its French manufacturing PMI declined to a two-month low of 51.5 in November from 51.8 the previous month, while the services PMI rose to a two-month high of 52.6 from 51.4.
Elsewhere, GBP/USD slid 0.27% to 1.2390.

USD/JPY rallied 1.43% to an eight-month high of 112.78, while USD/CHF climbed 0.56% to 1.0171.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.08% at 0.7396 and with NZD/USD dropping 0.79% to 0.7006.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD gained 0.28% to trade at 1.3478.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.81% at a fresh 14-year high of 101.91.

Tuesday, 22 November 2016

Oil prices fall on renewed doubts on OPEC-led production cut

Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains, as doubts re-emerged over whether OPEC would agree to a crude oil production cut at a ministerial meeting next week.
A strong dollar, which traded near the 13 1/2-year peak hit last week, also weighed on prices amid thin trading ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

International Brent crude oil futures slipped 8 cents to $49.04 a barrel at 0548 GMT after climbing to $49.42 a barrel earlier in Wednesday's session on optimism OPEC would agree to an output cut.
Reuters commodities analyst Wang Tao said that Brent could rise to $49.85 per barrel, a level marked by several technical resistance factors.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell 8 cents to $47.95 a barrel after rising to $48.30 earlier on Wednesday.
"The reason prices fell is renewed concern by traders in the ability of producers to reach agreement with Iran and Iraq on production cuts," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney.

Wednesday's lethargy came after oil prices rallied earlier this week. Traders had anticipated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would successfully implement a production cut at its Nov. 30 meeting in order to prop up prices.

With oil output among OPEC members running at around 34 million barrels a day, the market is suddenly looking at substantial cuts to get back to the level of 32 million to 33 million barrels a day when production curbs were first mooted earlier this year, Spooner said.

The OPEC gathering will debate an oil output cut of 4 to 4.5 percent for all of its members except Libya and Nigeria next week but the deal's success hinges on an agreement from Iraq and Iran, which may not give a full backing, three OPEC sources said Tuesday.

"The best case out of the OPEC meeting is an agreement to get production back to the 33 million barrel levels. I think if that happens there is scope to see oil surge up into the mid-$50s a barrel at least temporarily," Spooner said.

Short-term though, analysts said that investors were currently unwilling to push crude prices to $50 a barrel or higher.
"Their reticence is understandable given that longs (long positions) put on above that level have not ended well in recent times," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in Singapore.

"Tonight's (U.S.) EIA Crude Inventory numbers should provide a welcome, albeit temporary sideshow to the OPEC main event. Otherwise, we expect Asia to continue the sideways trading ranges," Halley said.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to publish official U.S. crude oil and refined product inventory data later on Wednesday.
U.S. Crude stockpiles are expected to rise by 700,000 barrels, according to the latest Reuters poll, while distillates will fall and gasoline will rise.

Monday, 14 November 2016

Forex - Dollar hits 9-month highs on Trump bets

The dollar hit nine-month highs against a basket of the other major currencies on Monday, boosted by expectations that a wave of fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur growth and inflation.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.74% at 99.72, the highest level since January 29.
Last week the index rose 2.02%, the largest weekly gain since November 2015.

Investors expect that Trump's campaign pledges to increase fiscal spending, cut taxes and loosen financial regulation will prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates as economic growth and inflation pick up.

Investors are currently pricing an 81.1% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
Expectations for higher rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest since January on Monday as a selloff in Treasuries continued amid a surge in inflation expectations.

The dollar hit fresh five-month highs against the yen on Monday, with USD/JPY climbing 0.9% to 107.63.
In Japan, data overnight showed that the economy grew at a faster than expected pace in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, but the report also indicated that domestic demand remained weak.

The euro fell to its lowest level since January against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.88% to 1.0757.
Sterling was also weaker, with GBP/USD falling 0.75% to 1.2496. The pound had hit a five-week high against the dollar on Friday amid hopes that Britain and the U.S. would continue to remain close despite political upheaval in both counties this year.

Currencies linked to the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal remained under pressure after the White House conceded that it would not pass Congress ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as president.
Trump made opposing the TPP a key part of his campaign.

AUD/USD was near one-month lows at 0.7540, while NZD/USD fell 0.41% to 0.7048 as markets awaited news on the economic consequences of an earthquake that struck the country on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso was holding above record lows against the greenback, with USD/MXN at 21.01.

The peso found some support after Trump said parts of the wall he has pledged to build on the U.S.-Mexico border could be fencing.

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

Gold climbs towards fresh 4-week high Fed, U.S. election in focus-SapForex24

Gold prices rose towards a fresh four-week high during Europe's session on Tuesday, as investors waited for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, while monitoring increased uncertainty over the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $7.15, or 0.56%, to $1,280.25 a troy ounce by 3:50AM ET (07:50GMT), within sight of last Friday's four-week high of $1,285.40.

The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday but set the stage for a hike in December amid signs the economy is picking up steam.

We Provide Best Forex & Comex Trading Signal-SapForex24

Traders are currently pricing in a less than 10% chance of a rate hike this week,For December, odds stood at around 78%.
Meanwhile, investors continued to digest news of further investigation into Democrat Hillary Clinton's email issues by the FBI.

Markets were rattled by news last Friday that the FBI is planning to review more emails related to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's private server, just over a week before the election.

The revelation could damage the chances of the Democrat candidate, fueling worries about a surprise election outcome.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 98.32 early Tuesday, moving away from last week's nine-month peak of 99.09.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery rose 17.7 cents, or 0.99%, to $17.97 a troy ounce during morning hours in London, while copper futures rallied 1.1 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.216 a pound.

Activity in China's manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace than expected in October, two separate surveys showed on Tuesday, adding to views the world's second-largest economy is stabilizing.

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 51.2 in October from September's 50.4, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The private Caixin survey also hit 51.2, showing the fastest rate of improvement since March 2011.