Monday, 14 November 2016

Forex - Dollar hits 9-month highs on Trump bets

The dollar hit nine-month highs against a basket of the other major currencies on Monday, boosted by expectations that a wave of fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur growth and inflation.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.74% at 99.72, the highest level since January 29.
Last week the index rose 2.02%, the largest weekly gain since November 2015.

Investors expect that Trump's campaign pledges to increase fiscal spending, cut taxes and loosen financial regulation will prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates as economic growth and inflation pick up.

Investors are currently pricing an 81.1% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
Expectations for higher rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest since January on Monday as a selloff in Treasuries continued amid a surge in inflation expectations.

The dollar hit fresh five-month highs against the yen on Monday, with USD/JPY climbing 0.9% to 107.63.
In Japan, data overnight showed that the economy grew at a faster than expected pace in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, but the report also indicated that domestic demand remained weak.

The euro fell to its lowest level since January against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.88% to 1.0757.
Sterling was also weaker, with GBP/USD falling 0.75% to 1.2496. The pound had hit a five-week high against the dollar on Friday amid hopes that Britain and the U.S. would continue to remain close despite political upheaval in both counties this year.

Currencies linked to the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal remained under pressure after the White House conceded that it would not pass Congress ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as president.
Trump made opposing the TPP a key part of his campaign.

AUD/USD was near one-month lows at 0.7540, while NZD/USD fell 0.41% to 0.7048 as markets awaited news on the economic consequences of an earthquake that struck the country on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Mexican peso was holding above record lows against the greenback, with USD/MXN at 21.01.

The peso found some support after Trump said parts of the wall he has pledged to build on the U.S.-Mexico border could be fencing.


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